Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
